Nicolas Batum shut down Jalen Brunson three years ago in playoffs, but it’s not 2021 anymore

Three years ago, Jalen Brunson had the playoff series of his nightmares. Brunson, then the Dallas Mavericks’ sixth man, scored just 18 points on 7-for-22 shooting in the last four games of the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers. He was minus-56 in 114 total minutes in the series, and logged only 10 minutes in Game 7, a 15-point Clippers win in which Brunson scored two points and watched Trey Burke play over him.

Brunson’s struggles can be attributed, at least in part, to the defense of then-Clippers forward Nicolas Batum, a versatile veteran who rarely makes mistakes, stands 6-foot-8 and has a 7-foot-1 wingspan.

“Batum completely shut down Jalen Brunson last year in the playoffs, like completely shut him down,” then-Mavericks director of quantitative research and development Haralabos Voulgaris said on Bill Simmons’ podcast in 2022 “Now that was something that was devastating to the Mavs’ ability to win games. You just basically take away your second-best offensive player because Batum’s on him. That’s tough to deal with.”

On Saturday at Madison Square Garden, Brunson and Batum will meet in the first round again, and they’re both riding high. Brunson, the New York Knicks’ leading man, just finished the best regular season of his career, one that will earn him his first All-NBA nod and a place on many MVP ballots. Batum, the Philadelphia 76ers’ jack-of-all-trades, just became a postseason hero by making six 3s and blocking Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro’s crunch-time 3 in the play-in.

Batum will likely spend some time guarding Brunson, but it isn’t 2021 anymore. That was Brunson’s first playoff series, and while he was indeed Dallas’ second-best playmaker — and one of the league’s best backups — this was a full year before he exploded for 41 points with Luka Doncic sidelined against the Utah Jazz. In a couple of ways, his struggles against the Clippers directly led to him becoming the superstar he is now: Dallas decided not to offer him the four-year, $55 million contract he was eligible for the following summer, and Brunson didn’t want to experience a series like that ever again.

“It sat with me all summer,” Brunson told reporters at training camp the next season. A little less than a year ago, during his first playoff series with the Knicks, he told Fox Sports’ Yaron Weitzman, “I wouldn’t really trade any experience for anything. Knowing how I played that series and knowing what I could have done, what could have been better, that kind of was always on my mind. And it still is.”

Brunson has made a case for Most Improved Player in each of the three seasons since. He is a radically different, more confident player than the one who looked hesitant against Batum, and he’s in a totally different team context. He’s still 6-foot-2, but he and the Knicks are used to opposing teams putting bigger, longer defenders on him. Brunson is aggressive against them, physical with them and usually able to get where he wants to go.

Long renowned for his footwork, Brunson has proven this year that he’s one of the toughest covers in the NBA. He’s insanely crafty, but all the focus on his pivots and pump fakes might have overshadowed his ballhandling, first step and pure bucket-getting. This season, he upped his usage rate from 26.6% to 31.1% (sixth in the league among qualified players) and his efficiency barely budged.

Compared to his Dallas days, he’s way better at drawing fouls, somehow even better at taking care of the ball and a totally different kind of threat as a shooter. As well as making 44.5% of his catch-and-shoot 3s this season, the only two players who attempted more than his 4.3 pull-up 3s per and shot a better than his 37.4% on them were Doncic and James Harden. (On a per-possession basis, he shot pull-up 3s almost four times as frequently as he did in 2020-21.)

Recently, Brunson has diversified his game out of necessity. After fellow All-Star Julius Randle suffered what turned out to be a season-ending injury in January, opponents started defending Brunson more aggressively. New York countered this by getting him off the ball, where he is excellent at relocating for 3s and using opponents’ ball-denial against them.

The Sixers could choose to blitz him, but he’s seen that coverage more than anyone except Doncic (and he’s seen lots of switch-and-double, too). He’ll either get rid of the ball quickly, or he’ll drag out the double team and further compromise the defense; either way, the Knicks will end up with a 4-on-3.

While Batum deserves credit for his work that 2021 series, it wasn’t all him. The Clippers switched out of that matchup plenty, but they were willing to do that because they usually had other elite wing defenders — i.e. Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Terance Mann — on the floor at the same time. Philadelphia’s roster is constructed differently; Brunson will be able to target Tyrese Maxey and Buddy Hield, and he’ll test Joel Embiid’s willingness to come up high against pick-and-rolls.

So what exactly should the Sixers do? The short answer is that it might not matter: Brunson has become the kind of player for whom there isn’t exactly a solution. Last week, the Boston Celtics, who do have a bunch of elite wing defenders and finished with the league’s second-best defense this season, tried multiple primary defenders, tried switching, tried dropping when he went at Kristaps Porzingis, tried pressuring him full-court and tried blitzing him. In 30 minutes, he scored 39 points on 15-for-23 shooting, his second-lowest scoring total in New York’s final five games.

There may not be anyone in the NBA in more of a groove entering the playoffs. In the last month of the regular season, Brunson averaged a league-high 35.1 points per game — 3.5 more than Doncic, No. 2, who averaged 1.6 more minutes — on 59.8% true shooting, plus 7.4 assists and only 2.4 turnovers.

Generally speaking, though, it is still best to put length on Brunson if you have the personnel. Even if you do that, though, you need to try to pack the paint. This is how Philadelphia forced him into seven turnovers and 5-for-18 shooting on Feb. 22, and coach Nick Nurse took this to an extreme on March 10, opting to “weak” the pick-and-roll — i.e. force Brunson to his right hand, ironically a variation of the “ice” coverage popularized by Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau — and totally ignore both Josh Hart and Precious Achiuwa on the perimeter. The Sixers held Brunson to 19 points on 6-for-22 shooting, limited New York to a season-low (by any team) 73 points and won the game.

In a rematch two days later, however, OG Anunoby returned from injury and took Achiuwa’s place in the starting lineup, making that particular strategy untenable. The Knicks won in a blowout.

Based on the regular-season matchups and the fact that Batum came off the bench in the play-in, Batum will probably not be Brunson’s primary defender on New York’s first offensive possession on Saturday. That job will likely fall to 6-foot-7 forward Kelly Oubre Jr., whose wingspan is two inches longer than Batum’s. Don’t be surprised if Nurse has the Sixers pre-switching in order to keep length on Brunson (and keep Maxey, Hield and Embiid away from him) and throws a box-and-1 out there at some point, but don’t be surprised if they surrender some switches and put the 6-foot Kyle Lowry on him at times, either.

Limiting this version of Brunson, like limiting any superstar, is more about collectively keeping him out of his comfort zone than shutting him down, and Philadelphia’s success in this regard might have more to do with how Hart and Miles McBride shoot from 3-point range than how Oubre and Batum hold up at the point of attack. Defending Brunson was never strictly a one-man job, and it sure as hell isn’t now.

Top DraftKings, FanDuel daily Fantasy basketball picks on Friday, April 19 include Bam Adebayo

The Bulls and the Kings are both coming off victories in the 2024 NBA Play-In Tournament in must-win scenarios, whereas the Heat and Pelicans are coming off losses in their first play-in contests. Now that all four teams find themselves in must-win positions to secure the final spots in the playoffs, how will their previous performances carry over to Friday night and affect those in the NBA DFS player pool? Coby White exploded for 42 points, nine rebounds and six assists after never scoring more than 37 in a game, but can daily Fantasy basketball players expect a performance like that against Miami’s No. 3 defense?

With Zion Williamson (hamstring) and Jimmy Butler (knee) both out on Friday, daily Fantasy basketball players will have to significantly alter their NBA DFS strategy. What opportunities will their absences provide for lower-priced players in the NBA DFS player pool on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings? Jonas Valanciunas averaged 17 points and 10.4 rebounds over 12 games without Williamson in the lineup, compared to 12.2 points and 8.8 rebounds on the season, so should you include him in NBA DFS lineups? Before making your NBA DFS picks, be sure to check out the NBA DFS advice, player rankings, stacks, and top daily Fantasy basketball picks from SportsLine’s Jimmie Kaylor.

Kaylor is a DFS and betting expert for SportsLine, who won a DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest in 2022. He uses a combination of his background as a former college and professional athlete and his keen eye for statistical trends when making his picks and locking in his DFS lineups. Kaylor enters the 2024 calendar year with multiple five-figure tournament cashes on his DFS resume.

Kaylor’s approach allows him to find the best NBA DFS values and create optimal lineups that he only shares on SportsLine. They’re a must-see for any NBA DFS player.

Last Friday (when Kaylor last made picks), Kaylor highlighted Timberwolves center Naz Reid as one of his top picks in his NBA DFS player pool on both sites. The result: Reid had 19 points and three rebounds, two assists and a block, returning 27.75 points on DraftKings and 26.6 points on FanDuel as one of the better values in the NBA DFS player pool. Anybody who included him in their lineups was well on the way to a profitable day.

Kaylor has turned his attention to NBA action on Friday and locked in his top daily Fantasy basketball picks. You can only see them by heading to SportsLine.

Top NBA DFS picks for Friday, April 19
For Friday, one of Kaylor’s top NBA DFS picks is Heat center Bam Adebayo ($8,700 on DraftKings and $8.500 on FanDuel). Adebayo had 10 points, 12 rebounds and two blocks in Miami’s 105-104 loss to the 76ers on Wednesday. Now with Butler out, the Heat will need Adebayo to take on a larger scoring role, which he’s proven capable of doing. Adebayo had a tough matchup against Joel Embiid on Wednesday, and although the Bulls also have size in the middle with Nikola Vucevic and Andre Drummond, it won’t be as challenging as going up against Embiid while straining energy guarding him defensively.

Adebayo averaged 19.3 points and 10.4 rebounds this season as one of just 13 players in the NBA to average a double-double. Clint Capela had 22 points and 17 rebounds against the Bulls on Tuesday, and Adebayo can take advantage of similar matchups on Friday. Adebayo averaged 22.1 points, 11.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists over 21 games without Butler in the lineup this season.

Another part of McClure’s optimal NBA DFS strategy includes rostering Kings guard Keon Ellis ($5,000 on DraftKings and $5,600 on FanDuel). Ellis had 15 points, four rebounds, five assists, three steals and three blocks in a win over the Warriors in their first play-in tournament contest. He was a contributor in all facets offensively and defensively both for the Kings and in generating points for NBA DFS lineups. It was his third straight game with multiple steals and second straight with multiple blocks as his defensive contributions make him an asset for NBA DFS picks even on days when De’Aaron Fox or Domantas Sabonis may dominate the scoring.

Ellis, an undrafted player out of Alabama in his second NBA season, didn’t start playing substantial minutes until March but quickly proved he should be in the rotation. Ellis averaged 8.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, two assists and 1.6 steals over 23 games since March 1. Kevin Huerter (shoulder) and Malik Monk (knee) remain out for the Kings as Ellis has seen his role increase without them on the floor. Kaylor thinks Ellis has a great chance at providing value at his price point and by using him in NBA DFS lineups, you’ll also be able to afford some of the higher-priced options in the NBA DFS player pool. See Kaylor’s other NBA DFS picks right here.

How to set your NBA DFS lineups for Friday, April 19
Kaylor is also targeting a player who could go off for massive numbers on Friday because of a dream matchup. This pick could be the difference between winning your tournaments and cash games or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is here.

Time’s up for short-handed Heat as Pelicans quell De’Aaron Fox

Now that the 2024 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat
Alex Caruso is questionable due to an ankle injury. He’s Chicago’s entire defense—Bulls lineups without him decline by seven points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass. If ever you were going to go into an elimination game without your defense, it would be against this version of the Miami Heat. They already ranked 22nd in offense on the season. Now they enter this game without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier. Lineups featuring neither scored a paltry 112 points per 100 possessions. Duncan Robinson was listed as available against the 76ers but ultimately didn’t play. If he’s out too, that lineup figure drops further to 109.3 points per 100 possessions. If a do-or-die game is close, would you rather have the likely Clutch Player of the Year in DeMar DeRozan and one of the Most Improved Player favorites in Coby White leading the way? Or… Tyler Herro? Caleb Martin? Bam Adebayo is a fantastic player who has grown meaningfully on offense this year. He’s not someone you should be running your offense through in a do-or-die situation. The Pick: Bulls +1.5

Caruso’s injury takes an easy under off the table, but that’s still the pick here. The Bulls scored only 1.015 points per possession against zone defenses this season, which was below league-average. We saw just how much an unexpected zone can throw an opponent off in the Philly game, and it’s potentially even deadlier to Chicago, given its reluctance to shoot 3’s, which is the best answer against a zone. Expect Erik Spoelstra to come up with some creative defensive wrinkles around that zone defense to try to flummox Chicago. It won’t lead to a win, but it will limit the point total. The Pick: Under 205

Bam Adebayo attempted 14 3-pointers in his first 54 games this season. He then shot 14-of-28 from 3-point range in his last 17 games. He’s clearly at least become comfortable enough from deep to try when he’s left wide open. Chicago starts a very immobile center in Nikola Vucevic, so odds are, Adebayo is going to have chances to try. With a plus-money line, I like the odds of Bam hitting at least one triple. The Pick: Adebayo Over 0.5 3-Pointers

Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans
Obviously, the absence of Zion Williamson matters here… but the Pelicans went 5-0 against the Kings this season and are somehow underdogs at home despite Sacramento missing Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter. The biggest reason for New Orleans’ success in this matchup isn’t Williamson. It’s Herb Jones. When defended by Jones this season, De’Aaron Fox has shot 40.7% from the floor and 27.3% on 3-pointers. If Monk and Huerter were healthy, the Kings would have ways of countering that matchup. Right now, Sacramento’s offense is so dependent on Fox for creation that Jones defending him this well poses an enormous threat to their entire offense. The Pick: Pelicans +1.5

We’ve already covered why I’m bullish on the New Orleans defense. Sacramento has been playing great defense for two solid months now. They have the NBA’s No. 3 ranked defense since March 1 and just held the Warriors to 94 points in the first Play-In game. Williamson’s brute force was the Pelicans’ best answer for Sacramento’s smaller lineup, but without him, scoring won’t be easy for them either. New Orleans has other answers, but don’t expect this to be a shootout. The Pick: Under 212

Keon Ellis is the one offensive player I do like in this matchup. He’s hit double-figures in four of his last five games and is averaging 15.2 points in that stretch. He’s grown into a deceptively effective secondary ball-handler and his confidence on jumpers is through the roof right now. Fox is desperately going to need escape valves with Jones defending him, and I expect Ellis to be the beneficiary. The Pick: Ellis Over 10.5 Points

Monday Night Football picks, predictions from NFL model on 175-126 roll

The Minnesota Vikings will try to bounce back after seeing their win streak snapped, and they’ll host the Chicago Bears to wrap up the Week 12 NFL schedule on Monday Night Football. The Vikings (6-5) had won five straight games, but the Broncos ended that with their 21-20 home victory last week. Denver scored the winning touchdown with just over one minute left. The Bears (3-8) blew a 12-point lead in the final five minutes of a 31-26 loss to the Lions in Detroit. The Vikings won this season’s first meeting, 19-13 in Chicago in Week 6, their fifth straight victory in the rivalry.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Minnesota is a three-point favorite in the latest Bears vs. Vikings odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 44. Before you make any Vikings vs. Bears picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Bears vs. Vikings 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Vikings vs. Bears:

Bears vs. Vikings spread: Minnesota -3
Bears vs. Vikings over/under: 44 points
Bears vs. Vikings money line: Chicago +127, Minnesota -151
CHI: Bears are 9-14-1 ATS as underdogs since 2022
MIN: Vikings are 6-9 ATS in their past 15 games at home
Bears vs. Vikings picks: See picks at SportsLine
Bears vs. Vikings live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why the Vikings can cover
Minnesota is 7-3-1 against the spread this season and quarterback Joshua Dobbs has been a revelation since joining the team via trade and taking over for injured Kirk Cousins. Dobbs has thrown for 647 yards and four touchdowns while being intercepted just once in three starts. He also has 131 rushing yards and has a rushing TD in each game. There is at least a chance Justin Jefferson (571 yards in five games) could return from injury, but tight end T.J. Hockenson has been filling in with aplomb.

Hockenson is fifth in the NFL with 75 receptions and leads all tight ends with 736 yards. The Bears have lost 12 consecutive division games (2-12 ATS) and five of those are against the Vikings (4-1 ATS). Minnesota’s defense is allowing just 18.5 points, as the Vikings have gone 6-2 over the past eight games. The unit allows 94 rushing yards per game (seventh in NFL), so they should neutralize Chicago’s strength. Danielle Hunter is second in the league with 12 sacks. See who to back at SportsLine.

Why the Bears can cover
Monday Night Football has been a low-scoring affair this season, with 12 of the 13 games going under the total. Chicago is 4-6-2 ATS this season, but are 3-3 ATS on the road. They will be eager to rebound from the blown game in Detroit, when Justin Fields ran for 104 yards and D.J. Moore had seven catches for 96 yards. The Bears have the fourth-best rushing offense in the NFL (139.5 yards per game) and Moore is eighth in receiving yards with 889.

Fields has 1,370 passing yards with 12 TDs and has rushed for 341 and one score. He can hit Moore deep, as he is third in the NFL with six TDs over 20 air yards despite missing four games. Moore’s six TDs have all come in Fields starts. Tight end Cole Kmet (49 receptions, five TDs) also has thrived despite the team’s QB issues. The Bears defense allows 3.4 yards per rush, best in the NFL, and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds has two of the team’s nine interceptions. See who to back at SportsLine.

How to make Bears vs. Vikings picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the total, projecting 50 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s NFL picks and analysis at SportsLine.

NFL live stream info, TV channel, start time, game odds

The Minnesota Vikings will be playing in front of their home fans against the Chicago Bears at 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday at U.S. Bank Stadium. Both teams took a loss in their last game, so they’ll have plenty of motivation to get the ‘W’.

It looks like Minnesota got the smaller half of the wishbone at Thanksgiving dinner. They and the Broncos were almost perfectly matched up on Sunday, but the Vikings suffered an agonizing 21-20 defeat. Minnesota’s defeat signaled the end of their five-game winning streak.

Nobody from Minnesota had a standout game, but they got scores from Joshua Dobbs and Josh Oliver.

Meanwhile, it looks like Chicago got the smaller half of the wishbone at Thanksgiving dinner. They fell to the Lions 31-26. Chicago was up 26-14 in the fourth but couldn’t hold on to the lead.

The Bears’ loss shouldn’t obscure the performances of Justin Fields, who rushed for 104 yards, and DJ Moore who picked up 96 receiving yards and a touchdown.

The Bears didn’t go easy on the quarterback and picked off three passes before the game was over. Those interceptions were spread across the Bears’ defensive unit.

Minnesota’s loss dropped their record down to 6-5. As for Chicago, they bumped their record down to 3-8 with that defeat, which was their third straight on the road.

While the two teams both let their fans down in their last outings, both still covered. As for their next game, the Vikings are the favorite in this one, as the experts expect to see them win by 3.5 points. They might be worth a quick bet since they’ve covered the spread the last six times they’ve played.

Odds
Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite against Chicago, according to the latest NFL odds.

The over/under is set at 43 points.

See NFL picks for every single game, including this one, from SportsLine’s advanced computer model. Get picks now.

Broncos, Rams make noise as Bills, Patriots are gutted

Another week of NFL action is almost in the books. And Week 12 certainly brought its fair share of drama. The Packers stunned the Lions to spoil Detroit’s Thanksgiving. Then during Sunday’s slate, the Patriots changed quarterbacks yet again, the Falcons took the NFC South lead and the Giants won their second straight with rookie Tommy DeVito under center.

Which coaches, players and teams deserve the most praise (or criticism) after the weekend? Here are big winners and losers:

Winner: Sean Payton
The Broncos were once 1-5, and Payton inexplicably appeared on track to outdo even Nathaniel Hackett as leader of a hapless Denver program. Now they’re 6-5, squarely in the AFC playoff race, after cruising past the Browns on Sunday. Payton’s now overseen three straight games of clutch fourth-quarter TDs from Russell Wilson, and his resurgent defense held Cleveland to 12 points. The team may or may not have the magic to make a difference in January, but the turnaround is commendable nonetheless.

Loser: Sean McDermott
For a while on Sunday, his Bills looked poised to put the Eagles down handily, which would’ve been a huge accomplishment for a team looking to fully restore its playoff stride. But then McDermott’s defense allowed Jalen Hurts to revert to MVP form in the second half, and his decision to “ice” Eagles kicker Jake Elliott, then forfeit a potential 20-second offensive drive, at the end of regulation backfired. In overtime, his “D” once again crumbled, permitting Philly to log another close, clutch victory.

Winner: Matthew Stafford
For weeks, Stafford has been fighting just to survive behind the Rams’ shuffling O-line. On Sunday, he got Kyren Williams back in the lineup, and Los Angeles’ ground game exploded all the way back. He slung it pretty well himself, too, tossing four scores and spreading the ball all over Jonathan Gannon’s defense to lead a rout of the Cardinals. Just like that, Sean McVay’s scrappy contender can’t be counted out as a legit factor in the NFC playoff picture.

Loser: Kevin Stefanski
Beating the resurgent Broncos wasn’t going to be a cakewalk with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, making just his third career start at QB, but Stefanski didn’t help his own cause with some curious play-calling late against Denver. Even worse, the fill-in QB was forced to exit late with a head injury, meaning Cleveland’s short- and long-term playoff prospects could hinge on an eventual practice squad call-up of Joe Flacco, who just joined the team. That is unless Stefanski rides with P.J. Walker yet again.

Winner: Najee Harris
After a year and a half of slogging along, the Steelers at least moved the ball better in their first game since axing embattled coordinator Matt Canada. But no one benefitted from the new offense more than Harris, who approached 100 yards and scored on the ground the same day his typically superior counterpart, Jaylen Warren, lost a fumble, which No. 1 wideout Diontae Johnson may or may not have tried to scoop up. Pittsburgh’s still a suspect “contender,” but their big back should be happier today.

Loser: Mac Jones (again)
Bill Belichick refused to name him the starter all week, then trotted him out anyway. The saddest part is anyone could’ve predicted what would come next: Even with a bad Giants defense in front of him, Jones tossed two ugly picks to warrant yet another benching, this time at halftime. It’s felt, for a while now, like the former first-rounder is already out the door in New England, but losing his gig to Bailey Zappe for a fourth (!) time this season, against Tommy DeVito and New York of all teams, should do it.

Winner: Shane Steichen
It wasn’t a quiet week in Indianapolis, where Colts owner Jim Irsay made headlines for speaking out about a previous arrest and former star linebacker Shaquille Leonard lamented his abrupt release. But Steichen still got another respectable showing from Gardner Minshew and their makeshift offense when it came time to play football, overcoming an early Buccaneers lead (and then a late comeback effort) to put the team above .500. If the Colts can keep Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss going on the ground, this is a wild card contender!

Loser: Dennis Allen
You had one job: beat the offensively challenged Falcons to secure control of the weak NFC South. Instead, Allen’s Saints came out of the bye week without much life and, after Chris Olave’s exit due to injury, failed to match Atlanta’s playmaking in every phase of the game. It was more of the same from Derek Carr and Co. — lots of short, safe, but uninspiring strategy that somehow made Desmond Ridder and Bijan Robinson look like one of the game’s most electrifying duos when it counted.

Winner: Jaguars (barely)
It wasn’t pretty, and if not for Matt Ammendola’s last-minute 58-yard field-goal try bouncing off the crossbar of the goal post, Jacksonville might’ve gone to overtime with the rival Texans. But the Jags defense stepped up late to contain star rookie C.J. Stroud, with Josh Allen leading the charge off the edge, and both Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk showed up with big plays to keep Doug Pederson’s club atop the AFC South. This win will go a long way toward their playoff race, even if it was close.

Patriots off to worst start since 1993 with loss to Giants, losing in a way the NFL hasn’t seen in 30 years

The New England Patriots are off to a historically bad start … in a number of ways. The team is 2-9, their worst start since they began 1-11 in 1993, marking over three decades since the Patriots have seen such a rough season.

On Sunday, New England lost its ninth game of the season, 10-7, to an also struggling New York Giants team. The Patriots benched quarterback Mac Jones halfway through the loss in favor of Bailey Zappe. Head coach Bill Belichick would not name a starter leading up to the game and told both QBs to be ready to play. Based on how they played — Jones was 12-of-21 for 89 yards with two interceptions, Zappe went 9-of-14 for 54 yards and an interception — neither was particularly ready.

Zappe lead the team into field goal range in the final seconds, with the Patriots down three. Chad Ryland had the chance to send the game into overtime, but missed a 35 yard field goal wide left.

Running back Rhamondre Stevenson had the Patriots’ only touchdown.

New England is the first team in 30 years — since those 1993 Patriots, Drew Bledsoe’s rookie season — to lose back-to-back games while allowing 10 or fewer points. Belichick only lost two games while allowing fewer than 10 points in his first 28 seasons and he has now lost two in the last two weeks.

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No other team in the league has lost a game this season while allowing fewer than 10 points, going 48-0, while the Patriots are 1-2 in such games.

After seeing unprecedented success for two decades, New England is seeing unprecedented struggles.

The Patriots are tied for 28th in passing yards per attempt (6.1), 25th in passing yards (2,135) and 28th in rushing yards (949). Their offense is one of the worst in the league and their quarterback situation is not stable, with Jones having already been benched multiple times this season.

New England’s next game is Dec. 3 at home against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Future NFL job openings becoming clearer as coaching hot seats get warmer

The Sunday NFL action after Thanksgiving is always odd because so many games are isolated during the holiday, even more so this year with the Dolphins and Jets squaring off in the first-ever “Black Friday” game. Take four games off the Sunday slate and it can get pretty thin pretty quick. That was extremely evident during the early slate of games, where nary a single team topped the 30-point mark.

Six slow-moving slogs served to emphasize the increasing late-season warmth of several hot seats around the league. And it’s impossible to start anywhere but Carolina when looking at who might be the next coach fired.

David Tepper hasn’t been happy with this team’s performance and Sunday’s embarrassing effort against a meh Titans team only exacerbated the problems.

Leaving the locker room, David Tepper shook his head and yelled, “F—-!”

— Joe Person (@josephperson) November 26, 2023
Now, let’s be clear: the Panthers mostly have a Tepper problem on their hands from an overarching, roster-building perspective. But they are not a good football team, and scored less than 14 points for the SIXTH time this year while falling to 1-10 on the season.

Rookie Will Levis didn’t have to do much in this effort for Tennessee, attempting just 28 passes. Mostly the Titans handed off to Derrick Henry (76 yards on 18 carries and a pair of rushing touchdowns) and let their defense handle the rest, snuffing out Carolina’s run game and letting the pass game look like, well, what it’s looked like all season.

Bryce Young actually had multiple plays longer than 20 yards and Carolina held Tennessee to 2-for-11 on third down and the Panthers still were never really in this game. Young had a chance to engineer a game-tying drive but Carolina only managed to muster 4 yards before turning it over on downs.

Carolina’s had three legitimately winnable games over the past month and was only really mildly competitive against the Bears and Titans, but not in any sort of way where you believed they might actually win.

Which makes it significantly likely Frank Reich is going to be a one-and-done coach in Carolina. Tepper went out and wooed Matt Rhule, gave him a massive contract, saddled him with questionable quarterback choices and still canned Rhule less than three years into his tenure with the Panthers. Not saying it was a bad move, but the whole process was completely flawed.

So is what’s going on with Carolina this year. Reich is a good coach. He hasn’t done a good job coaching this year. Those two things can live in mutual exclusivity. Reich got saddled with a rookie quarterback who cost significant draft and personnel capital to acquire. Young has no real weapons. The Panthers are like a homeless man’s Jets team with their bad offensive line, lack of offense and a stout defense that can’t hold every team to less than 10 points.

At this point it would be shocking to see Reich stick past the end of the season.

End of an Era, death of a dynasty
Bill Belichick won’t get fired … right? RIGHT?? It’s impossible to fathom the possibility of Belichick being canned in New England, considering he brought a ridiculous six Super Bowls to the Patriots over the last 20-something years. But, man, any other football mind coaxing this poor performance from a football team would be getting fired without question after this season.

Somehow Sunday was a new low, impressive considering the two weeks before the bye featured a loss at home to Sam Howell and a loss in Germany to Gardner Minshew on a very public stage. But Sunday, oh buddy Sunday … it was a new low as Belichick’s team lost as a 3.5-point road favorite to Tommy DeVito.

DeVito’s got as many wins this season (two) as the Patriots, who fell to 2-9 on the year, easily the worst start in Belichick’s tenure and the worst Patriots start since Drew Bledsoe’s rookie year of 1993.

The Patriots have recorded four games scoring seven points or less this season. They had five such games in the 283 starts of Tom Brady’s career. They’re the first team in 30 years to allow less than 10 points in back-to-back games and lose both of those games (shoutout to the 1993 Patriots). Belichick’s two games lost while allowing 10 points or less matches the total for the entirety of his 28 years as a head coach previously.

Mac Jones was reportedly named the starter shortly before kick after Belichick spent all week long refusing to name who would be under center for this team in Week 12, as if it mattered between Jones and Bailey Zappe. It really didn’t: reports indicated Zappe would get some work as well and he sure did, but largely because Jones basically got benched. He finished with two picks and a fumble that the Patriots should have lost. Zappe wasn’t much better and the Patriots sunk to a new low.

Only the Bears (via the Panthers) and the Cardinals are preventing New England from holding the first overall pick. And there’s a very viable question if the Pats would want to keep the keys in Belichick’s hands for a rebuild with a new first-round quarterback. Given the offense the last two seasons, it’s not an unreasonable question.

Wherever they end up picking, there’s no turnaround in sight. It’s hard not to see this season as a fast track for a divorce between Belichick and the franchise he’s captained to unimaginable success for over two decades once the offseason gets here.

Commandeering the Commanders
This one feels obvious but there’s little to no chance Ron Rivera is coming back next year. After a humiliating performance against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving afternoon in which Dak Prescott piled up 20+ points in the final nine minutes to turn things into a blowout, Rivera met with new owner Josh Harris and agreed to dismiss defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio.

It’s the type of firing that is almost clearly and certainly a precursor for a head coaching change, especially with new ownership in place.

Rivera is a defensive coach and JDR was a close confidant who ran his defense. The Commanders traded both Chase Young and Montez Sweat off a defense that was already bad. What could they possibly expect?

This firing is as much about setting the table for a future house cleaning as it is trying to shake up the defense in its current iteration. Rivera would need a miracle turnaround to save his job at this point.

Eagles have world-class talent, but after latest clutch victory, it’s their fortitude that truly shines

When the Eagles hoisted their first Lombardi Trophy to close the 2017 NFL season, it was like confirmation that destiny was finally, for once, on their side. But it also felt a bit like lightning in a bottle. Nick Foles, the quarterback who outdueled Tom Brady on the biggest stage in sports, was never supposed to be under center. Doug Pederson, the coach who outsmarted Bill Belichick, packed his bags just four years later. They were an underdog story to the fullest; their glory left almost as quickly as it arrived.

But wait a second. Didn’t the Eagles return to the Super Bowl in 2022, just six years after their 41-33 shootout that brought a title to Broad Street? Some teams are still struggling to advance to their first big game! Yes. All of that’s true. But only five players from the championship roster remain in 2023. Almost the entire staff is different. General manager Howie Roseman, briefly scorned for failing to lengthen the title window, won back Philly by expeditiously stripping and rebuilding the lineup to postseason form.

And yet there’s another element of the present-day Eagles that makes them feel miles removed from their trophy-winning predecessors: They aren’t underdogs. They’re just straight-up dawgs.

Going 14-3 under Nick Sirianni in 2022, with Jalen Hurts making a seismic leap to MVP candidacy, would’ve been enough. Hurts going neck and neck with Patrick Mahomes, the modern-day equivalent of Brady, in a close Super Bowl defeat to the Chiefs, the modern-day equivalent of the Patriots, was icing on the cake for another faster-than-expected construction job by Roseman. But even the biggest Birds believers looked at the 2023 schedule — punctuated by a daunting November stretch including consecutive games against the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills and 49ers, each of them justified Super Bowl hopefuls — and anticipated regression.

Instead, after coming back from down 10 to beat Buffalo in overtime on Sunday, six days after coming back from down 10 to upset Mahomes and Co. in Kansas City, the Eagles are 10-1 for the second straight season. Before 2022, they’d only ever hit that mark four times since their 1933 inception, and each of those times, they advanced to the NFL championship.

Speechless 🦅 pic.twitter.com/2IaErl9KfP

— NFL (@NFL) November 27, 2023
It’s firstly a testament to the world-class talent that Roseman and team owner Jeffrey Lurie have accumulated in every phase of the game. From Hurts to receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to pass rushers Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat to cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry to the ageless offensive line headlined by Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson, it’s truly an all-star squad even compared to the 2017 Birds, who reached the promised land with a handful of overlooked journeymen and injury replacements, be it Foles and Corey Clement or LeGarrette Blount and Patrick Robinson.

History, of course, will only definitively remember the teams that went the distance; it’s why guys like Foles and Blount and Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz are already cemented as legends in the City of Brotherly Love. But the faithful also fondly remember the pillars that set the stage for title expectations — Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Brian Dawkins, and all the 2000s icons who didn’t get over the hump but got close enough so often that they bonded thousands of fans to the Birds for life. It might soon be that way with these current Eagles, if it isn’t already, because of not just the talent, but the contention.

The numbers themselves are ridiculous: Hurts, who once looked incapable of matching the NFL’s best at the position, is 25-3 since becoming the Eagles’ full-time starter, including playoffs. Read that again: 25-3. Sirianni, whose abundant on-field exuberance can get him miscast as a juvenile leader, is 35-14 since replacing Pederson. His fourth-down aggression, particularly on the “Brotherly Shove” QB push his group helped popularize, sometimes makes the famously gutsy Pederson look conservative. And there isn’t a single active head coach with a better career winning percentage.

But what shouldn’t be lost in all the loud play-making and brash coaching is the entire organization’s fortitude. This Eagles team lost a close Super Bowl and, by the looks of it, came right back with … more unflappability. “You win or you learn,” Hurts quipped after that title-game defeat. It was a totally unsurprising remark from his mouth; Hurts is notorious for his even-keeled, often-cliche-ridden tone. Winning is all that matters, he’ll say, not the way it looks. Which is fine and dandy, but most QBs and teams can’t afford to actually live that out, which he and the Eagles do, over and over and over again.

There was a moment late in Super Bowl LVII that foretold, or confirmed, this enviable resilience. Hurts lost a fumble that turned into a Chiefs score in the second quarter. Down 35-27 in the fourth, his touchdown run with 5:15 left pulled Philly within two, and needing a two-point conversion, he powered forward on a sweeping run that knotted the game at 35-35. K.C. would go on to win, but in that moment, there was nothing that was going to deny Hurts, just 24 at the time, from making it a game. A year later, he’s still an MVP-caliber figurehead; the passing marks aren’t nearly as clean as they were, but he continues to save his best stuff, either as a runner or thrower, for the brightest lights. If that Super Bowl showing didn’t sell you?

Maybe it was in Week 7 this fall, when the Dolphins’ historic offense marched into town, weeks removed from a record 70-point outing, only to be stifled in an Eagles rout. Maybe it was Week 9, when Hurts shook off a battered knee to outlast Dallas. Or Week 11, when the defense shut out Mahomes in the second half to upset the Chiefs. Or Week 12, when Josh Allen ran all over the Eagles, only for Hurts to score five times and engineer his ninth career comeback after trailing by 10+ points. Only Mahomes has more of those in his career, putting Hurts ahead of clutch icons like Tom Brady and Joe Montana.

And the thing is, Hurts isn’t the clutch player on the Eagles; he’s one of many, just setting the tone for the rest. Go from one side of the ball to another. Is anyone surprised when DeVonta Smith, the super-slender but tough-as-nails target, reels in a critical sideline ball? Or when the imposing A.J. Brown races open downfield? How about when Reddick or Sweat or Brandon Graham gets a much-needed fourth-quarter sack? Or when Slay or Bradberry gets their hands on a crunch-time throw? When Jake Elliott, whose franchise-record 61-yard field goal in 2017 helped justify comments like, “This is our year,” lined up for a 59-yarder to end regulation under rainy conditions on Sunday, surely a handful of Eagles fans believed his leg would deliver again.

If Sirianni allows the energy of his players to rub off on him while patrolling the sidelines, then Hurts’ remarkably contained composure — a refusal to blink, regardless of the score, setting or opponent; whether he’s just hit D’Andre Swift for a score or lost the ball on a fumble — has rubbed off on the rest of the franchise. Because no one ever blinks. No one ever panics. The games may be imperfect; the miscues are inevitable. But the results keep saying the same thing: The Eagles persevere.

Look, a lot can change quickly in the NFL. If the Eagles don’t hoist another trophy, then all of this will be, as they say, for naught. Or will it? The fact that the standard has been raised so quickly in Philadelphia, and upheld so consistently as of late, must mean something, too. Eagles fans used to get critiqued for their impatience, laughed at for booing their own playoff teams after a single botched series. But guess what? These Eagles welcome such doubt and derision, for they, too, care enough to want the best. Not only that, but they’ve shown, in both their potential and their pressurized performance, they can be it.

Jalen Hurts most clutch QB? Jaguars No. 1 seed in AFC?

Week 12 of the NFL was a wild one, thanks to the game of the year between the Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills. That was the first game in NFL history where both quarterbacks had two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in a game, which ended with a Jalen Hurts touchdown run in a thrilling overtime win.

The Denver Broncos are right in the thick of the AFC playoff race after winning their fifth game in a row and the Indianapolis Colts are currently the No. 7 seed in the AFC! The Atlanta Falcons, quarterback dilemma and all, lead the NFC South as well.

The playoff races are heating up, and so are the overreactions. Which ones from the Week 12 Sunday slate are overreactions and which are reality?

Jalen Hurts is the most clutch QB in the NFL
Overreaction or reality: Reality

Hurts found a way to lead the Philadelphia Eagles to victory when they trailed by double digits — again. Philadelphia was down 10 points in the second half and Hurts decided to channel his inner Michael Jordan, going 14 of 20 for 167 yards with three touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 134.8 rating, while rushing seven times for 43 yards and a score — the 12-yard touchdown in overtime that sealed the Eagles win.

This isn’t the first time Hurts has brought the Eagles back. Hurts has eight straight victories when trailing by double digits at any point in the game, an NFL record (no other quarterback has more than four). He has 14 consecutive wins against teams with winning records, also an NFL record.

When tied or trailing, Hurts has completed 71% of his passes for 1,710 yards with 14 touchdowns to one interception — a league-leading 114.4 rating. In the second half when tied or trailing, Hurts has completed 67.6% of his passes for 686 yrds with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions for a 136.6 passer rating.

Hurts is the most clutch quarterback in the league. Period.

The Bills are going to the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The loss to the Eagles was brutal for Buffalo, as the Eagles snatched victory from the Bills several times in the game. Even with the loss to the team with the NFL’s best record, the Bills still are in good shape to make a run at the playoffs.

The Bills are 6-6, a half game behind the Indianapolis Colts (6-5) for the final playoff spot. The Houston Texans and Denver Broncos are also 6-5, ahead of Buffalo.

The Bills have a brutal schedule (at Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, at Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, at Miami Dolphins). The road is tough, and they have to split their next two games to give themselves a shot). The 3-5 conference record is the difference and other teams have easier schedules.

If Josh Allen plays each week like he did Sunday, however, Buffalo could win out.

Jaguars will be the No. 1 seed in AFC
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

At 8-3, the Jaguars are currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC, tied with Kansas City and Miami. Baltimore (9-3) holds the best record in the conference. Could Jacksonville actually clinch the top seed?

In the next two weeks, Jacksonville will play the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns, who are both without their starting quarterbacks, so 10-3 is a possibility. Then they have the showdown with Baltimore on “Sunday Night Football,” which could be for the top seed in the conference. Jacksonville finishes with Tampa Bay, Carolina and Tennessee — three teams currently with losing records.

At worst, the Jaguars could end the year at 12-5 — but 13-4 is a very strong possibility. That may be enough for home-field advantage, but the tiebreaker to Kansas City (lost to Chiefs in Week 2) will hurt.

Bill Belichick should be fired before the end of the season
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Belichick won’t be fired before the conclusion of the year, but he should. The offense was atrocious once again, scoring just seven points and totaling 283 yards against a New York Giants team that can’t get out of its own way.

Below is how poor the New England Patriots have been:

The Patriots recorded their fourth game this season with seven points or fewer; they had five such games in Tom Brady’s 283 starts with the team.
The Patriots are the first team in 30 years to lose back-to-back games when allowing 10 or fewer points (the 1993 Patriots were the last to do that).
Belichick has lost as many games with 10 or fewer points allowed this year (two) as his first 28 seasons as a head coach combined (two).
This offense is the fault of Belichick and his poor drafting. Clearly a defensive coach calling the offensive plays last year (Matt Patricia) wasn’t the problem either. This falls on Belichick, who is responsible for the mess he created in New England post-Brady.

Belichick won’t get fired prior to the end of the year because of his legendary status with New England, but he deserves to be relieved of his duties.

Steelers offense was significantly better without Matt Canada
Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Pittsburgh Steelers scored just 16 points in Sunday’s win over the Cincinnati Bengals, but looked significantly better on the offensive side of the ball in their first game post-Canada. Here’s a quick look at what they were able to do on offense Sunday:

The Steelers gained 421 total yards, snapping a streak of 58 straight games under 400 total yards, the second-longest streak in the past 30 years.
They outgained the Bengals 421-222, the first time this season they have outgained an opponent.
That is a victory in and of itself. They outrushed the Bengals 153-25, finding an identity on the ground as Pittsburgh has 174.0 rushing yards per game in the last four games (79.7 in the first seven games). Pat Freiermuth had 120 receiving yards and Kenny Pickett averaged 8.4 yards per attempt, clearly taking more shots of 10-plus air yards.

The points will come, but Pittsburgh has to be pleased with how the offense looked without Canada calling the shots.