Monday Night Football picks, predictions from NFL model on 175-126 roll

The Minnesota Vikings will try to bounce back after seeing their win streak snapped, and they’ll host the Chicago Bears to wrap up the Week 12 NFL schedule on Monday Night Football. The Vikings (6-5) had won five straight games, but the Broncos ended that with their 21-20 home victory last week. Denver scored the winning touchdown with just over one minute left. The Bears (3-8) blew a 12-point lead in the final five minutes of a 31-26 loss to the Lions in Detroit. The Vikings won this season’s first meeting, 19-13 in Chicago in Week 6, their fifth straight victory in the rivalry.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Minnesota is a three-point favorite in the latest Bears vs. Vikings odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 44. Before you make any Vikings vs. Bears picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Bears vs. Vikings 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Vikings vs. Bears:

Bears vs. Vikings spread: Minnesota -3
Bears vs. Vikings over/under: 44 points
Bears vs. Vikings money line: Chicago +127, Minnesota -151
CHI: Bears are 9-14-1 ATS as underdogs since 2022
MIN: Vikings are 6-9 ATS in their past 15 games at home
Bears vs. Vikings picks: See picks at SportsLine
Bears vs. Vikings live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why the Vikings can cover
Minnesota is 7-3-1 against the spread this season and quarterback Joshua Dobbs has been a revelation since joining the team via trade and taking over for injured Kirk Cousins. Dobbs has thrown for 647 yards and four touchdowns while being intercepted just once in three starts. He also has 131 rushing yards and has a rushing TD in each game. There is at least a chance Justin Jefferson (571 yards in five games) could return from injury, but tight end T.J. Hockenson has been filling in with aplomb.

Hockenson is fifth in the NFL with 75 receptions and leads all tight ends with 736 yards. The Bears have lost 12 consecutive division games (2-12 ATS) and five of those are against the Vikings (4-1 ATS). Minnesota’s defense is allowing just 18.5 points, as the Vikings have gone 6-2 over the past eight games. The unit allows 94 rushing yards per game (seventh in NFL), so they should neutralize Chicago’s strength. Danielle Hunter is second in the league with 12 sacks. See who to back at SportsLine.

Why the Bears can cover
Monday Night Football has been a low-scoring affair this season, with 12 of the 13 games going under the total. Chicago is 4-6-2 ATS this season, but are 3-3 ATS on the road. They will be eager to rebound from the blown game in Detroit, when Justin Fields ran for 104 yards and D.J. Moore had seven catches for 96 yards. The Bears have the fourth-best rushing offense in the NFL (139.5 yards per game) and Moore is eighth in receiving yards with 889.

Fields has 1,370 passing yards with 12 TDs and has rushed for 341 and one score. He can hit Moore deep, as he is third in the NFL with six TDs over 20 air yards despite missing four games. Moore’s six TDs have all come in Fields starts. Tight end Cole Kmet (49 receptions, five TDs) also has thrived despite the team’s QB issues. The Bears defense allows 3.4 yards per rush, best in the NFL, and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds has two of the team’s nine interceptions. See who to back at SportsLine.

How to make Bears vs. Vikings picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the total, projecting 50 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s NFL picks and analysis at SportsLine.

NFL live stream info, TV channel, start time, game odds

The Minnesota Vikings will be playing in front of their home fans against the Chicago Bears at 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday at U.S. Bank Stadium. Both teams took a loss in their last game, so they’ll have plenty of motivation to get the ‘W’.

It looks like Minnesota got the smaller half of the wishbone at Thanksgiving dinner. They and the Broncos were almost perfectly matched up on Sunday, but the Vikings suffered an agonizing 21-20 defeat. Minnesota’s defeat signaled the end of their five-game winning streak.

Nobody from Minnesota had a standout game, but they got scores from Joshua Dobbs and Josh Oliver.

Meanwhile, it looks like Chicago got the smaller half of the wishbone at Thanksgiving dinner. They fell to the Lions 31-26. Chicago was up 26-14 in the fourth but couldn’t hold on to the lead.

The Bears’ loss shouldn’t obscure the performances of Justin Fields, who rushed for 104 yards, and DJ Moore who picked up 96 receiving yards and a touchdown.

The Bears didn’t go easy on the quarterback and picked off three passes before the game was over. Those interceptions were spread across the Bears’ defensive unit.

Minnesota’s loss dropped their record down to 6-5. As for Chicago, they bumped their record down to 3-8 with that defeat, which was their third straight on the road.

While the two teams both let their fans down in their last outings, both still covered. As for their next game, the Vikings are the favorite in this one, as the experts expect to see them win by 3.5 points. They might be worth a quick bet since they’ve covered the spread the last six times they’ve played.

Odds
Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite against Chicago, according to the latest NFL odds.

The over/under is set at 43 points.

See NFL picks for every single game, including this one, from SportsLine’s advanced computer model. Get picks now.

Broncos, Rams make noise as Bills, Patriots are gutted

Another week of NFL action is almost in the books. And Week 12 certainly brought its fair share of drama. The Packers stunned the Lions to spoil Detroit’s Thanksgiving. Then during Sunday’s slate, the Patriots changed quarterbacks yet again, the Falcons took the NFC South lead and the Giants won their second straight with rookie Tommy DeVito under center.

Which coaches, players and teams deserve the most praise (or criticism) after the weekend? Here are big winners and losers:

Winner: Sean Payton
The Broncos were once 1-5, and Payton inexplicably appeared on track to outdo even Nathaniel Hackett as leader of a hapless Denver program. Now they’re 6-5, squarely in the AFC playoff race, after cruising past the Browns on Sunday. Payton’s now overseen three straight games of clutch fourth-quarter TDs from Russell Wilson, and his resurgent defense held Cleveland to 12 points. The team may or may not have the magic to make a difference in January, but the turnaround is commendable nonetheless.

Loser: Sean McDermott
For a while on Sunday, his Bills looked poised to put the Eagles down handily, which would’ve been a huge accomplishment for a team looking to fully restore its playoff stride. But then McDermott’s defense allowed Jalen Hurts to revert to MVP form in the second half, and his decision to “ice” Eagles kicker Jake Elliott, then forfeit a potential 20-second offensive drive, at the end of regulation backfired. In overtime, his “D” once again crumbled, permitting Philly to log another close, clutch victory.

Winner: Matthew Stafford
For weeks, Stafford has been fighting just to survive behind the Rams’ shuffling O-line. On Sunday, he got Kyren Williams back in the lineup, and Los Angeles’ ground game exploded all the way back. He slung it pretty well himself, too, tossing four scores and spreading the ball all over Jonathan Gannon’s defense to lead a rout of the Cardinals. Just like that, Sean McVay’s scrappy contender can’t be counted out as a legit factor in the NFC playoff picture.

Loser: Kevin Stefanski
Beating the resurgent Broncos wasn’t going to be a cakewalk with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, making just his third career start at QB, but Stefanski didn’t help his own cause with some curious play-calling late against Denver. Even worse, the fill-in QB was forced to exit late with a head injury, meaning Cleveland’s short- and long-term playoff prospects could hinge on an eventual practice squad call-up of Joe Flacco, who just joined the team. That is unless Stefanski rides with P.J. Walker yet again.

Winner: Najee Harris
After a year and a half of slogging along, the Steelers at least moved the ball better in their first game since axing embattled coordinator Matt Canada. But no one benefitted from the new offense more than Harris, who approached 100 yards and scored on the ground the same day his typically superior counterpart, Jaylen Warren, lost a fumble, which No. 1 wideout Diontae Johnson may or may not have tried to scoop up. Pittsburgh’s still a suspect “contender,” but their big back should be happier today.

Loser: Mac Jones (again)
Bill Belichick refused to name him the starter all week, then trotted him out anyway. The saddest part is anyone could’ve predicted what would come next: Even with a bad Giants defense in front of him, Jones tossed two ugly picks to warrant yet another benching, this time at halftime. It’s felt, for a while now, like the former first-rounder is already out the door in New England, but losing his gig to Bailey Zappe for a fourth (!) time this season, against Tommy DeVito and New York of all teams, should do it.

Winner: Shane Steichen
It wasn’t a quiet week in Indianapolis, where Colts owner Jim Irsay made headlines for speaking out about a previous arrest and former star linebacker Shaquille Leonard lamented his abrupt release. But Steichen still got another respectable showing from Gardner Minshew and their makeshift offense when it came time to play football, overcoming an early Buccaneers lead (and then a late comeback effort) to put the team above .500. If the Colts can keep Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss going on the ground, this is a wild card contender!

Loser: Dennis Allen
You had one job: beat the offensively challenged Falcons to secure control of the weak NFC South. Instead, Allen’s Saints came out of the bye week without much life and, after Chris Olave’s exit due to injury, failed to match Atlanta’s playmaking in every phase of the game. It was more of the same from Derek Carr and Co. — lots of short, safe, but uninspiring strategy that somehow made Desmond Ridder and Bijan Robinson look like one of the game’s most electrifying duos when it counted.

Winner: Jaguars (barely)
It wasn’t pretty, and if not for Matt Ammendola’s last-minute 58-yard field-goal try bouncing off the crossbar of the goal post, Jacksonville might’ve gone to overtime with the rival Texans. But the Jags defense stepped up late to contain star rookie C.J. Stroud, with Josh Allen leading the charge off the edge, and both Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk showed up with big plays to keep Doug Pederson’s club atop the AFC South. This win will go a long way toward their playoff race, even if it was close.

Patriots off to worst start since 1993 with loss to Giants, losing in a way the NFL hasn’t seen in 30 years

The New England Patriots are off to a historically bad start … in a number of ways. The team is 2-9, their worst start since they began 1-11 in 1993, marking over three decades since the Patriots have seen such a rough season.

On Sunday, New England lost its ninth game of the season, 10-7, to an also struggling New York Giants team. The Patriots benched quarterback Mac Jones halfway through the loss in favor of Bailey Zappe. Head coach Bill Belichick would not name a starter leading up to the game and told both QBs to be ready to play. Based on how they played — Jones was 12-of-21 for 89 yards with two interceptions, Zappe went 9-of-14 for 54 yards and an interception — neither was particularly ready.

Zappe lead the team into field goal range in the final seconds, with the Patriots down three. Chad Ryland had the chance to send the game into overtime, but missed a 35 yard field goal wide left.

Running back Rhamondre Stevenson had the Patriots’ only touchdown.

New England is the first team in 30 years — since those 1993 Patriots, Drew Bledsoe’s rookie season — to lose back-to-back games while allowing 10 or fewer points. Belichick only lost two games while allowing fewer than 10 points in his first 28 seasons and he has now lost two in the last two weeks.

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No other team in the league has lost a game this season while allowing fewer than 10 points, going 48-0, while the Patriots are 1-2 in such games.

After seeing unprecedented success for two decades, New England is seeing unprecedented struggles.

The Patriots are tied for 28th in passing yards per attempt (6.1), 25th in passing yards (2,135) and 28th in rushing yards (949). Their offense is one of the worst in the league and their quarterback situation is not stable, with Jones having already been benched multiple times this season.

New England’s next game is Dec. 3 at home against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Future NFL job openings becoming clearer as coaching hot seats get warmer

The Sunday NFL action after Thanksgiving is always odd because so many games are isolated during the holiday, even more so this year with the Dolphins and Jets squaring off in the first-ever “Black Friday” game. Take four games off the Sunday slate and it can get pretty thin pretty quick. That was extremely evident during the early slate of games, where nary a single team topped the 30-point mark.

Six slow-moving slogs served to emphasize the increasing late-season warmth of several hot seats around the league. And it’s impossible to start anywhere but Carolina when looking at who might be the next coach fired.

David Tepper hasn’t been happy with this team’s performance and Sunday’s embarrassing effort against a meh Titans team only exacerbated the problems.

Leaving the locker room, David Tepper shook his head and yelled, “F—-!”

— Joe Person (@josephperson) November 26, 2023
Now, let’s be clear: the Panthers mostly have a Tepper problem on their hands from an overarching, roster-building perspective. But they are not a good football team, and scored less than 14 points for the SIXTH time this year while falling to 1-10 on the season.

Rookie Will Levis didn’t have to do much in this effort for Tennessee, attempting just 28 passes. Mostly the Titans handed off to Derrick Henry (76 yards on 18 carries and a pair of rushing touchdowns) and let their defense handle the rest, snuffing out Carolina’s run game and letting the pass game look like, well, what it’s looked like all season.

Bryce Young actually had multiple plays longer than 20 yards and Carolina held Tennessee to 2-for-11 on third down and the Panthers still were never really in this game. Young had a chance to engineer a game-tying drive but Carolina only managed to muster 4 yards before turning it over on downs.

Carolina’s had three legitimately winnable games over the past month and was only really mildly competitive against the Bears and Titans, but not in any sort of way where you believed they might actually win.

Which makes it significantly likely Frank Reich is going to be a one-and-done coach in Carolina. Tepper went out and wooed Matt Rhule, gave him a massive contract, saddled him with questionable quarterback choices and still canned Rhule less than three years into his tenure with the Panthers. Not saying it was a bad move, but the whole process was completely flawed.

So is what’s going on with Carolina this year. Reich is a good coach. He hasn’t done a good job coaching this year. Those two things can live in mutual exclusivity. Reich got saddled with a rookie quarterback who cost significant draft and personnel capital to acquire. Young has no real weapons. The Panthers are like a homeless man’s Jets team with their bad offensive line, lack of offense and a stout defense that can’t hold every team to less than 10 points.

At this point it would be shocking to see Reich stick past the end of the season.

End of an Era, death of a dynasty
Bill Belichick won’t get fired … right? RIGHT?? It’s impossible to fathom the possibility of Belichick being canned in New England, considering he brought a ridiculous six Super Bowls to the Patriots over the last 20-something years. But, man, any other football mind coaxing this poor performance from a football team would be getting fired without question after this season.

Somehow Sunday was a new low, impressive considering the two weeks before the bye featured a loss at home to Sam Howell and a loss in Germany to Gardner Minshew on a very public stage. But Sunday, oh buddy Sunday … it was a new low as Belichick’s team lost as a 3.5-point road favorite to Tommy DeVito.

DeVito’s got as many wins this season (two) as the Patriots, who fell to 2-9 on the year, easily the worst start in Belichick’s tenure and the worst Patriots start since Drew Bledsoe’s rookie year of 1993.

The Patriots have recorded four games scoring seven points or less this season. They had five such games in the 283 starts of Tom Brady’s career. They’re the first team in 30 years to allow less than 10 points in back-to-back games and lose both of those games (shoutout to the 1993 Patriots). Belichick’s two games lost while allowing 10 points or less matches the total for the entirety of his 28 years as a head coach previously.

Mac Jones was reportedly named the starter shortly before kick after Belichick spent all week long refusing to name who would be under center for this team in Week 12, as if it mattered between Jones and Bailey Zappe. It really didn’t: reports indicated Zappe would get some work as well and he sure did, but largely because Jones basically got benched. He finished with two picks and a fumble that the Patriots should have lost. Zappe wasn’t much better and the Patriots sunk to a new low.

Only the Bears (via the Panthers) and the Cardinals are preventing New England from holding the first overall pick. And there’s a very viable question if the Pats would want to keep the keys in Belichick’s hands for a rebuild with a new first-round quarterback. Given the offense the last two seasons, it’s not an unreasonable question.

Wherever they end up picking, there’s no turnaround in sight. It’s hard not to see this season as a fast track for a divorce between Belichick and the franchise he’s captained to unimaginable success for over two decades once the offseason gets here.

Commandeering the Commanders
This one feels obvious but there’s little to no chance Ron Rivera is coming back next year. After a humiliating performance against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving afternoon in which Dak Prescott piled up 20+ points in the final nine minutes to turn things into a blowout, Rivera met with new owner Josh Harris and agreed to dismiss defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio.

It’s the type of firing that is almost clearly and certainly a precursor for a head coaching change, especially with new ownership in place.

Rivera is a defensive coach and JDR was a close confidant who ran his defense. The Commanders traded both Chase Young and Montez Sweat off a defense that was already bad. What could they possibly expect?

This firing is as much about setting the table for a future house cleaning as it is trying to shake up the defense in its current iteration. Rivera would need a miracle turnaround to save his job at this point.

Eagles have world-class talent, but after latest clutch victory, it’s their fortitude that truly shines

When the Eagles hoisted their first Lombardi Trophy to close the 2017 NFL season, it was like confirmation that destiny was finally, for once, on their side. But it also felt a bit like lightning in a bottle. Nick Foles, the quarterback who outdueled Tom Brady on the biggest stage in sports, was never supposed to be under center. Doug Pederson, the coach who outsmarted Bill Belichick, packed his bags just four years later. They were an underdog story to the fullest; their glory left almost as quickly as it arrived.

But wait a second. Didn’t the Eagles return to the Super Bowl in 2022, just six years after their 41-33 shootout that brought a title to Broad Street? Some teams are still struggling to advance to their first big game! Yes. All of that’s true. But only five players from the championship roster remain in 2023. Almost the entire staff is different. General manager Howie Roseman, briefly scorned for failing to lengthen the title window, won back Philly by expeditiously stripping and rebuilding the lineup to postseason form.

And yet there’s another element of the present-day Eagles that makes them feel miles removed from their trophy-winning predecessors: They aren’t underdogs. They’re just straight-up dawgs.

Going 14-3 under Nick Sirianni in 2022, with Jalen Hurts making a seismic leap to MVP candidacy, would’ve been enough. Hurts going neck and neck with Patrick Mahomes, the modern-day equivalent of Brady, in a close Super Bowl defeat to the Chiefs, the modern-day equivalent of the Patriots, was icing on the cake for another faster-than-expected construction job by Roseman. But even the biggest Birds believers looked at the 2023 schedule — punctuated by a daunting November stretch including consecutive games against the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills and 49ers, each of them justified Super Bowl hopefuls — and anticipated regression.

Instead, after coming back from down 10 to beat Buffalo in overtime on Sunday, six days after coming back from down 10 to upset Mahomes and Co. in Kansas City, the Eagles are 10-1 for the second straight season. Before 2022, they’d only ever hit that mark four times since their 1933 inception, and each of those times, they advanced to the NFL championship.

Speechless 🦅 pic.twitter.com/2IaErl9KfP

— NFL (@NFL) November 27, 2023
It’s firstly a testament to the world-class talent that Roseman and team owner Jeffrey Lurie have accumulated in every phase of the game. From Hurts to receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to pass rushers Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat to cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry to the ageless offensive line headlined by Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson, it’s truly an all-star squad even compared to the 2017 Birds, who reached the promised land with a handful of overlooked journeymen and injury replacements, be it Foles and Corey Clement or LeGarrette Blount and Patrick Robinson.

History, of course, will only definitively remember the teams that went the distance; it’s why guys like Foles and Blount and Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz are already cemented as legends in the City of Brotherly Love. But the faithful also fondly remember the pillars that set the stage for title expectations — Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Brian Dawkins, and all the 2000s icons who didn’t get over the hump but got close enough so often that they bonded thousands of fans to the Birds for life. It might soon be that way with these current Eagles, if it isn’t already, because of not just the talent, but the contention.

The numbers themselves are ridiculous: Hurts, who once looked incapable of matching the NFL’s best at the position, is 25-3 since becoming the Eagles’ full-time starter, including playoffs. Read that again: 25-3. Sirianni, whose abundant on-field exuberance can get him miscast as a juvenile leader, is 35-14 since replacing Pederson. His fourth-down aggression, particularly on the “Brotherly Shove” QB push his group helped popularize, sometimes makes the famously gutsy Pederson look conservative. And there isn’t a single active head coach with a better career winning percentage.

But what shouldn’t be lost in all the loud play-making and brash coaching is the entire organization’s fortitude. This Eagles team lost a close Super Bowl and, by the looks of it, came right back with … more unflappability. “You win or you learn,” Hurts quipped after that title-game defeat. It was a totally unsurprising remark from his mouth; Hurts is notorious for his even-keeled, often-cliche-ridden tone. Winning is all that matters, he’ll say, not the way it looks. Which is fine and dandy, but most QBs and teams can’t afford to actually live that out, which he and the Eagles do, over and over and over again.

There was a moment late in Super Bowl LVII that foretold, or confirmed, this enviable resilience. Hurts lost a fumble that turned into a Chiefs score in the second quarter. Down 35-27 in the fourth, his touchdown run with 5:15 left pulled Philly within two, and needing a two-point conversion, he powered forward on a sweeping run that knotted the game at 35-35. K.C. would go on to win, but in that moment, there was nothing that was going to deny Hurts, just 24 at the time, from making it a game. A year later, he’s still an MVP-caliber figurehead; the passing marks aren’t nearly as clean as they were, but he continues to save his best stuff, either as a runner or thrower, for the brightest lights. If that Super Bowl showing didn’t sell you?

Maybe it was in Week 7 this fall, when the Dolphins’ historic offense marched into town, weeks removed from a record 70-point outing, only to be stifled in an Eagles rout. Maybe it was Week 9, when Hurts shook off a battered knee to outlast Dallas. Or Week 11, when the defense shut out Mahomes in the second half to upset the Chiefs. Or Week 12, when Josh Allen ran all over the Eagles, only for Hurts to score five times and engineer his ninth career comeback after trailing by 10+ points. Only Mahomes has more of those in his career, putting Hurts ahead of clutch icons like Tom Brady and Joe Montana.

And the thing is, Hurts isn’t the clutch player on the Eagles; he’s one of many, just setting the tone for the rest. Go from one side of the ball to another. Is anyone surprised when DeVonta Smith, the super-slender but tough-as-nails target, reels in a critical sideline ball? Or when the imposing A.J. Brown races open downfield? How about when Reddick or Sweat or Brandon Graham gets a much-needed fourth-quarter sack? Or when Slay or Bradberry gets their hands on a crunch-time throw? When Jake Elliott, whose franchise-record 61-yard field goal in 2017 helped justify comments like, “This is our year,” lined up for a 59-yarder to end regulation under rainy conditions on Sunday, surely a handful of Eagles fans believed his leg would deliver again.

If Sirianni allows the energy of his players to rub off on him while patrolling the sidelines, then Hurts’ remarkably contained composure — a refusal to blink, regardless of the score, setting or opponent; whether he’s just hit D’Andre Swift for a score or lost the ball on a fumble — has rubbed off on the rest of the franchise. Because no one ever blinks. No one ever panics. The games may be imperfect; the miscues are inevitable. But the results keep saying the same thing: The Eagles persevere.

Look, a lot can change quickly in the NFL. If the Eagles don’t hoist another trophy, then all of this will be, as they say, for naught. Or will it? The fact that the standard has been raised so quickly in Philadelphia, and upheld so consistently as of late, must mean something, too. Eagles fans used to get critiqued for their impatience, laughed at for booing their own playoff teams after a single botched series. But guess what? These Eagles welcome such doubt and derision, for they, too, care enough to want the best. Not only that, but they’ve shown, in both their potential and their pressurized performance, they can be it.

Jalen Hurts most clutch QB? Jaguars No. 1 seed in AFC?

Week 12 of the NFL was a wild one, thanks to the game of the year between the Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills. That was the first game in NFL history where both quarterbacks had two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in a game, which ended with a Jalen Hurts touchdown run in a thrilling overtime win.

The Denver Broncos are right in the thick of the AFC playoff race after winning their fifth game in a row and the Indianapolis Colts are currently the No. 7 seed in the AFC! The Atlanta Falcons, quarterback dilemma and all, lead the NFC South as well.

The playoff races are heating up, and so are the overreactions. Which ones from the Week 12 Sunday slate are overreactions and which are reality?

Jalen Hurts is the most clutch QB in the NFL
Overreaction or reality: Reality

Hurts found a way to lead the Philadelphia Eagles to victory when they trailed by double digits — again. Philadelphia was down 10 points in the second half and Hurts decided to channel his inner Michael Jordan, going 14 of 20 for 167 yards with three touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 134.8 rating, while rushing seven times for 43 yards and a score — the 12-yard touchdown in overtime that sealed the Eagles win.

This isn’t the first time Hurts has brought the Eagles back. Hurts has eight straight victories when trailing by double digits at any point in the game, an NFL record (no other quarterback has more than four). He has 14 consecutive wins against teams with winning records, also an NFL record.

When tied or trailing, Hurts has completed 71% of his passes for 1,710 yards with 14 touchdowns to one interception — a league-leading 114.4 rating. In the second half when tied or trailing, Hurts has completed 67.6% of his passes for 686 yrds with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions for a 136.6 passer rating.

Hurts is the most clutch quarterback in the league. Period.

The Bills are going to the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The loss to the Eagles was brutal for Buffalo, as the Eagles snatched victory from the Bills several times in the game. Even with the loss to the team with the NFL’s best record, the Bills still are in good shape to make a run at the playoffs.

The Bills are 6-6, a half game behind the Indianapolis Colts (6-5) for the final playoff spot. The Houston Texans and Denver Broncos are also 6-5, ahead of Buffalo.

The Bills have a brutal schedule (at Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, at Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, at Miami Dolphins). The road is tough, and they have to split their next two games to give themselves a shot). The 3-5 conference record is the difference and other teams have easier schedules.

If Josh Allen plays each week like he did Sunday, however, Buffalo could win out.

Jaguars will be the No. 1 seed in AFC
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

At 8-3, the Jaguars are currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC, tied with Kansas City and Miami. Baltimore (9-3) holds the best record in the conference. Could Jacksonville actually clinch the top seed?

In the next two weeks, Jacksonville will play the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns, who are both without their starting quarterbacks, so 10-3 is a possibility. Then they have the showdown with Baltimore on “Sunday Night Football,” which could be for the top seed in the conference. Jacksonville finishes with Tampa Bay, Carolina and Tennessee — three teams currently with losing records.

At worst, the Jaguars could end the year at 12-5 — but 13-4 is a very strong possibility. That may be enough for home-field advantage, but the tiebreaker to Kansas City (lost to Chiefs in Week 2) will hurt.

Bill Belichick should be fired before the end of the season
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Belichick won’t be fired before the conclusion of the year, but he should. The offense was atrocious once again, scoring just seven points and totaling 283 yards against a New York Giants team that can’t get out of its own way.

Below is how poor the New England Patriots have been:

The Patriots recorded their fourth game this season with seven points or fewer; they had five such games in Tom Brady’s 283 starts with the team.
The Patriots are the first team in 30 years to lose back-to-back games when allowing 10 or fewer points (the 1993 Patriots were the last to do that).
Belichick has lost as many games with 10 or fewer points allowed this year (two) as his first 28 seasons as a head coach combined (two).
This offense is the fault of Belichick and his poor drafting. Clearly a defensive coach calling the offensive plays last year (Matt Patricia) wasn’t the problem either. This falls on Belichick, who is responsible for the mess he created in New England post-Brady.

Belichick won’t get fired prior to the end of the year because of his legendary status with New England, but he deserves to be relieved of his duties.

Steelers offense was significantly better without Matt Canada
Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Pittsburgh Steelers scored just 16 points in Sunday’s win over the Cincinnati Bengals, but looked significantly better on the offensive side of the ball in their first game post-Canada. Here’s a quick look at what they were able to do on offense Sunday:

The Steelers gained 421 total yards, snapping a streak of 58 straight games under 400 total yards, the second-longest streak in the past 30 years.
They outgained the Bengals 421-222, the first time this season they have outgained an opponent.
That is a victory in and of itself. They outrushed the Bengals 153-25, finding an identity on the ground as Pittsburgh has 174.0 rushing yards per game in the last four games (79.7 in the first seven games). Pat Freiermuth had 120 receiving yards and Kenny Pickett averaged 8.4 yards per attempt, clearly taking more shots of 10-plus air yards.

The points will come, but Pittsburgh has to be pleased with how the offense looked without Canada calling the shots.

Patriots get ‘D-‘ for embarrassing loss to Giants, Eagles earn ‘A’ for wild win over Bills

Welcome to the Week 12 grades!

It took 23 years as Patriots coach, but it appears that Bill Belichick has finally hit rock bottom in the NFL. The “Patriot Way” is now the “Wrong Way.” The Patriots suffered one of the most embarrassing losses of Week 12 in a 10-7 setback to the Giants.

If you’re wondering how bad things got, here’s a small taste:

They became the first NFL team in 30 years to lose back-to-back games despite surrendering 10 or fewer points in each game.
Belichick has now lost two straight games when his team allowed 10 or fewer points. Before this season, Belichick had only lost two such games in 28 seasons as a head coach.
NFL teams are 49-2 this season when allowing 10 or fewer points, which breaks down like this: The Patriots are 1-2 while the rest of the league is 48-0.
Like we said, it’s been ugly.

With that in mind, let’s get to the grades for Week 12, starting with the Patriots’ loss (If you want to see the grades for the Thanksgiving games and Black Friday game, be sure to click here).

N.Y. Giants 10-7 over New England
D-
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Patriots
Bill Belichick played mind games all week about who his starting QB would be, and as it turns out, it didn’t matter, because they were both bad. Mac Jones started the game, but he was benched at halftime after throwing two interceptions. Bailey Zappe played the second half and although he did lead a TD drive, he threw a back-breaking interception in the fourth quarter. This entire loss was an indictment on Belichick. Not only did his quarterbacks struggle, but his hand-picked rookie kicker missed a 35-yard field goal that would have sent the game to OT. After a loss like this, it’s starting to feel more and more like the Patriots will be moving on from Belichick after this season.
C+
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Giants
The Patriots offense has been horrible this year and the Giants took advantage of that on Sunday. The Giants were able to come away with a win thanks to a defense that came away with three interceptions. Bobby Okereke made one of the biggest plays of the game with a 55-yard interception return in the second quarter that set up a Tommy DeVito TD pass. The Giants also got a field goal following a Xavier McKinney interception in the second half. Although the offense struggled, it did show some flashes at times, especially when DeVito threw the ball to Jalin Hyatt, who caught five passes for 109 yards. The Giants have somehow now won two straight games, which should have this team feeling good heading into their Week 13 bye.
Patriots-Giants grades by John Breech (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

Atlanta 24-15 over New Orleans
C-
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Saints
If the Saints could have done anything in the red zone, they probably would have won this game, but they completely fell apart every time they drove inside Atlanta’s 20 on Sunday. The Saints made five trips into the red zone and they came away with zero touchdowns. Two of those trips ended with a turnover, including a brutal 92-yard pick-six thrown by Derek Carr. The Saints’ other problem in this game is that their defense got steamrolled for 228 yards on the ground. This was an ugly overall performance by a team that had extra time to prepare for the Falcons because they were coming off a bye.
B
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Falcons
The Falcons finally decided it was time to get the football to their best playmakers — and surprise, surprise — that strategy actually paid off. Bijan Robinson totaled 123 yards and two touchdowns on 19 touches. The Falcons running back caught a 26-yard TD in the fourth quarter that essentially iced the game. Drake London also got involved on offense with five catches for 91 yards. The Falcons offense piled up nearly 400 yards despite an underwhelming performance from Desmond Ridder, who threw two picks. Defensively, the Jessie Bates signing continues to look like one of the best moves of the offseason. Not only did the Falcons safety record a 92-yard pick-six, but he also forced a key fumble in the second half. The Falcons suddenly look like the team to beat in the NFC South.
Saints-Falcons grades by John Breech (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

Tennessee 17-10 over Carolina
C-
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Panthers
The Panthers offense has been struggling all season and those struggles continued in Week 12. Carolina only had three drives in the entire game that went for more than 35 yards. As if that’s not bad enough, Bryce Young lost a fumble in the first half that set up 15-yard TD drive for the Titans. With the offense not improving following another loss, it’s starting to feel like Frank Reich is suddenly on one of the hottest seats in the NFL.
C+
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Titans
The Titans love playing smash-mouth football and that’s exactly what they did on Sunday. Defensively, they beat up on Bryce Young. Not only did they sack the Panthers QB four times, but Arden Key also came up with a huge strip-sack in the first half that set up an early TD for the Titans. Offensively, the Titans went back to their bread-and-butter: They gave the ball to Derek Henry. The Titans running back rushed for 76 yards while also scoring multiple touchdowns for the first time this season. A bruising defense combined with a strong rushing attack? That’s how Mike Vrabel loves to win games.
Panthers-Titans grades by John Breech (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

Indianapolis 27-20 over Tampa Bay
C
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Buccaneers
The Buccaneers season is officially spiraling out of control. The Bucs have now lost six of their past seven games and a big reason it’s happening is because their offense is struggling. Those struggles continued in Indy on a day where the Colts defense beat up on Baker Mayfield (He was sacked six times). With the offensive line struggling, Mayfield never seemed really comfortable and that might be why he turned the ball over twice, including a lost fumble with under two minutes left that killed any chance of a comeback win. With the offense playing like this, it’s hard to see the Bucs staying in the division title race over the final six weeks of the season.
B
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Colts
The Colts have offensive weapons all over the place and they used every single one of those weapons against the Bucs. Jonathan Taylor ran through Tampa’s defense on a day where he averaged 6.1 yards per carry (He also had two rushing touchdowns). Michael Pittman also had a big day with 10 catches for 107 yards. Gardner Minshew, who was starting his seventh game of the season for the Colts, seems to look more and more comfortable every week. On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts suffocated Baker Mayfield, sacking him six times while also picking off the Bucs QB. The Colts suddenly feel like a dark horse team to make the playoffs out of the AFC.
Buccaneers-Colts grades by John Breech (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

Pittsburgh 16-10 over Cincinnati
A-
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Steelers
While it came against a team with a backup quarterback, the Steelers deserve a lot of credit for winning a road game against a division foe less than a week after firing their offensive coordinator. Pittsburgh won the game by having a well-balanced offense and a defense that came up with the game’s biggest play on Trenton Thompson’s third-quarter interception. The pick set up Najee Harris’ game-winning score. With Matt Canada gone, the Steelers topped 400 yards for the first time since Week 2 of the 2020 season.
C-
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Bengals
Cincinnati’s defense did its best to keep it in the game, but it couldn’t overcome an offense that is clearly missing Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins. Zac Taylor, for whatever reason, didn’t lean on his running game despite having a backup QB under center in Jake Browning. Joe Mixon had just eight carries and the Bengals had just 11 rushing attempts.
Steelers-Bengals grades by Bryan DeArdo (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

Jacksonville 24-21 over Houston
A-
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Jaguars
The Jaguars held onto their top spot in the AFC South on the road in Houston, and have now won nine straight games away from home. That’s the longest road win streak in franchise history. Trevor Lawrence had a great outing with 364 passing yards and two total touchdowns, and had four completions that went for at least 42 yards. The defense was inconsistent for some of the afternoon, but came up big when C.J. Stroud tried to engineer a game-tying drive, as Josh Allen got to the quarterback twice and kept Houston just out of field goal range.
B
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Texans
This was a tough loss for the Texans. With a raucous crowd, it looked like C.J. Stroud and Co. were poised to take first place in the AFC South, but Matt Ammendola’s 58-yard field goal attempt that would have tied the game was short by just a few inches. Houston’s defense struggled to contain Jacksonville’s passing attack, and was the victim of several questionable penalties in the secondary on third downs. There were a couple of coaching questions, too. Houston had to blow through two timeouts before its final drive, and the Texans turned the ball over on downs near midfield in the fourth quarter after electing to pass on a third-and-1 and fourth-and-1, but the Texans were still in the mix at the very end.
Jaguars-Texans grades by Jordan Dajani (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

Philadelphia 37-34 over Buffalo (OT)
A-
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Bills
Josh Allen did all he could to lead the Bills to victory, just came up short to a magnificent second half by Jalen Hurts. The Bills had their miscues (again) with two missed field goals and Allen’s interception in his own territory, but they played well enough to beat any team in the league on this cold, rainy day. This was a loss Buffalo couldn’t afford, but the Bills know they can compete with the top teams in the league and that confidence should help with Kansas City and Dallas on the horizon. If Allen continues to play like this (339 pass yards, 81 rush yards, 2 pass TD, 2 rush TD), the Bills will be in the playoffs.
A
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Eagles
There’s nothing else you can say at this point. The Eagles are never out of a football game. Not with Jalen Hurts at quarterback, the player who has the NFL record with eight consecutive wins when trailing by double digits and 14 straight wins against winning teams. Hurts was phenomenal in the second half, going 14 of 20 for 137 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for the winning 12-yard score in overtime to get the Eagles to 10-1. Jake Elliott hit a 59-yard kick in the rain to tie it and force overtime. The Eagles defense didn’t give up the winning touchdown either, as the Bills had the ball first in OT — allowing Hurts and the offense a chance to win the game. This is a clutch football team.
Bills-Eagles grades by Jeff Kerr (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

Denver 29-12 over Cleveland
C-
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Browns
Things got out of whack for the Browns after Dorian Thompson-Robinson suffered a concussion early in the second half that knocked him out of the game. At that point, the Browns trailed by just five points but then proceeded to watch the Broncos score 12 unanswered points in his absence. Cleveland struggled to protect backup P.J. Walker, who was sacked four times in his short stint, including a late safety. While the wheels came on at that point, the Browns were sluggish to start this game offensively. They were able to reach the red zone twice in the first half but ultimately settled for field goals. When they finally got into the end zone at the start of the second half to cut the lead to just two points, the defense immediately let the Broncos travel 70 yards down the field to kick a field goal to go up by five. That was just one example where complementary football wasn’t firing on all cylinders for Kevin Stefanski’s team as they had their three-game winning streak snapped. They also committed three turnovers on the afternoon, which resulted in 10 points in favor of Denver.
A
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Broncos
This was a hard-nosed win for Denver, which extends the club’s winning streak to five games and is over .500 for the first time this season. The Broncos came out of the gate putting the football on the ground and finding tremendous success, including first-half rushing touchdowns by Samaje Perine and Russell Wilson. They also picked up chunk plays through the air when they needed to. While the offense did its job, the defense was particularly stellar for Denver. They were stout early in the red zone against Cleveland and forced three fumbles throughout the game, two were turned into points by the offense. They also put points on the board themselves with a late safety that capped a 15-0 run to end the game. Don’t look now, but Broncos Country is getting hot.
Browns-Broncos grades by Tyler Sullivan (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

L.A. Rams 37-14 over Arizona
A+
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Rams
When the Rams rushing attack is working, their offense is nearly unstoppable and their rushing attack was working in this game thanks to Kyren Williams. The running back, who was playing in his first game sinc Week 6, totaled 204 yards, with 143 of those coming on the ground. The Rams rushed for 228 yards in the game, marking the first time since 2018 that they’ve rushed for at least 225. The passing attack was also on fired with Matthew Stafford throwing four TD passes, including two that went to Williams. With this win, the Rams have creeped their way back into the NFC playoff race.
F
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Cardinals
The Cardinals offense got off to a fast start on Sunday, but then everything fell apart for them after that. After scoring a TD on their opening drive, the Cardinals got only one first down total on their final five possessions of the first half combined. With the offense sputtering, Arizona needed its defense to do something, but that didn’t happen. In what was easily one of their worst performances of the season, the Cardinals defense got steamrolled for more than 450 yards by the Rams. With the Cards getting destroyed, it will be interesting to see if Jonathan Gannon can keep his 2-10 team motivated over the final six weeks of the season.
Rams-Cardinals grades by John Breech (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

Kansas City 31-17 over Las Vegas
B
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Chiefs
After spotting the Raiders a quick 14-0 lead, the Chiefs took over after that. They finished the game by outscoring the Raiders 31-3 and a big reason for that was because Patrick Mahomes was on fired. Mahomes completed 79% of his passes and he’s dealing like that, the Chiefs are nearly impossible to beat. The Chiefs’ QB found a new favorite target in Rashee Rice, who had a career-high eight receptions for 107 yards. Of course, the most important thing for the Chiefs offense is that it finally produced some points in the second half. After going three straight games without a second half touchdown, the Chiefs scored two against the Raiders. The Chiefs defense struggled early, but got back on track in the second half, holding the Raiders to just 107 yards.
C
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Raiders
For the a good chunk of the first half, the Raiders looked like the best team in football. With 12 minutes left to play in the second quarter, Josh Jacobs had already rushed for 91 yards and the Raiders defense had held the Chiefs to just 24 yards of total offense. It looked like the route was on, but instead, the wheels fell off the wagon after that for the Raiders. Although Jakobi Meyers and Davante Adams both made some big grabs, the offense had trouble moving the ball over the final two and a half quarters of the game. As for the defense, the unit shut down Patrick Mahomes for a quarter, but the Chiefs QB diced them up over the final three quarters. The Raiders are a much better team with interim coach Antonio Pierce running the show, but they have to play four quarters of nearly perfect football to beat a team like the Chiefs and they only got one quarter of that on Sunday.
Chiefs-Raiders grades by John Breech (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

Baltimore 20-10 over L.A. Chargers
B
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Ravens
In their first game since losing Mark Andrews for the season, the Ravens offense seemed to struggle a little bit, but that didn’t matter because the defense handed the Chargers a beatdown. The Ravens forced four turnovers with the biggest one being a strip-sack by Jadeveon Clowney that came in the fourth quarter after the Chargers had driven inside Baltimore’s 20. The Ravens pass rush overwhelmed the Chargers offensive line on a night where Justin Herbert got sacked three times. Although the offense didn’t put up huge numbers, the rushing attack did put up nearly 200 yards and that’s exactly what Baltimore needed on a night where the passing game was slightly off. With the Ravens now at 9-3, it’s looking more and more like the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC is going to have to go through Baltimore.
C
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Chargers
This was a game where everything went wrong offensively for the Chargers, but they managed to keep this close thanks to an impressive performance on the defensive side of the ball. The offensive woes were at their worst during a second-quarter span where L.A. turned the ball over on THREE straight possessions. The Chargers biggest stars — Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen — all lost a fumble in the game. When your best players are all turning the ball over, it’s almost impossible to win. At 4-7, this is starting to feel like a lost season for the Chargers.

Patriots remain in position for next QB, Jets move into top 10 after loss to Dolphins

The 2024 NFL Draft is still a little over five months away, but fans of some teams (looking at you Bears, Cardinals and Patriots) are already thinking ahead to April.

Here is the current draft order through Sunday’s action in Week 12, according to Tankathon.

Note: Team needs are built out based on the projected free agents and are not necessarily a reflection of the current situation. Some team needs are more for depth rather than an immediate starter.

For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on “With the First Pick” — our year-round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find “With the First Pick” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc.

  1. Chicago Bears (via trade with 1-10 Panthers)
    Team needs: OG, C, EDGE, DT, WR
    Notable free agents: EDGE Yannick Ngakoue, EDGE Montez Sweat, TE Robert Tonyan, CB Jaylon Johnson, WR Darnell Mooney
  2. Arizona Cardinals (2-10)
    Team needs: CB, DT, EDGE, LB, OG, WR
    Notable free agents: WR Hollywood Brown, QB Josh Dobbs, DT Leku Fotu, CB Antonio Hamilton, EDGE L.J. Collier
  3. New England Patriots (2-9)
    Team needs: OT, DT, TE, WR, LB
    Notable free agents: TE Hunter Henry, OT Trent Brown, TE Mike Gesicki, EDGE Josh Uche, S Kyle Dugger, Ezekiel Elliott
  4. Chicago Bears (3-8)
    Team needs: OG, C, EDGE, DT, WR
    Notable free agents: EDGE Yannick Ngakoue, EDGE Montez Sweat, TE Robert Tonyan, CB Jaylon Johnson, WR Darnell Mooney
  5. Washington Commanders (4-8)
    Team needs: OG, C, TE, LB, EDGE, QB
    Notable free agents: DB Kamren Curl, RB Antonio Gibson, WR Curtis Samuel, QB Jacoby Brissett, CB Kendall Fuller
  6. New York Giants (4-8)
    Team needs: QB, OG, C, CB, DT, EDGE, WR, RB
    Notable free agents: CB Adoree Jackson, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Parris Campbell, LB Isaiah Simmons
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7)
    Team needs: OG, C, LB, S, DT, QB
    Notable free agents: WR Mike Evans, LB Devin White, LB Lavonte David, QB Baker Mayfield, S Antonio Winfield Jr.
  8. New York Jets (4-7)
    Team needs: OT, OG, S, LB, EDGE, WR
    Notable free agents: EDGE Carl Lawson, RB Dalvin Cook, OT Duane Brown, EDGE Bryce Huff, WR Mecole Hardman
  9. Los Angeles Chargers (4-7)
    Team needs: CB, DT, TE, RB, LB
    Notable free agents: RB Austin Ekeler, LB Kenneth Murray, TE Gerald Everett, RB Josh Kelley, CB Michael Davis
  10. Tennessee Titans (4-7)
    Team needs: WR, OT, DT, EDGE, RB
    Notable free agents: QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry, DT Denico Autry, DT Teair Tart, OT Chris Hubbard
  11. Las Vegas Raiders (5-7)
    Team needs: DT, OT, OG, CB, LB, QB, RB
    Notable free agents: RB Josh Jacobs, C Andre James, CB Marcus Peters, TE Austin Hooper, OL Jermaine Eluemunor
  12. New Orleans Saints (5-6)
    Team needs: OG, TE, EDGE, DT, S
    Notable free agents: OG Andrus Peat, QB Jameis Winston, OT James Hurst, LB Zack Baun, TE Jimmy Graham
  13. Green Bay Packers (5-6)
    Team needs: S, OG, C, EDGE, RB, QB
    Notable free agents: EDGE Rashan Gary, S Darnell Savage, RB A.J. Dillon, OT Yosh Nijman, OG Jon Runyan
  14. Los Angeles Rams (5-6)
    Team needs: OT, RB, CB, S, EDGE
    Notable free agents: WR Van Jefferson, S Jordan Fuller, OG Kevin Dotson, S John Johnson, LB Troy Reeder
  15. Cincinnati Bengals (5-6)
    Team needs: OT, OG, C, DT, WR
    Notable free agents: DT D.J. Reader, WR Tyler Body, WR Tee Higgins, OT Jonah Williams, TE Irv Smith
  16. Buffalo Bills (6-6)
    Team needs: CB, S, DT, EDGE, WR, LB
    Notable free agents: S Micah Hyde, EDGE Leonard Floyd, RB Damien Harris, WR Gabe Davis, EDGE Shaq Lawson, EDGE A.J. Epenesa
  17. Arizona Cardinals (via trade with 6-5 Texans)
    Team needs: CB, DT, EDGE, LB, OG, WR
    Notable free agents: WR Hollywood Brown, DT Leki Fotu, CB Antonio Hamilton, EDGE L.J. Collier, TE Geoff Swaim
  18. Denver Broncos (6-5)
    Team needs: DT, S, EDGE, LB, CB, RB
    Notable free agents: LB Josey Jewell, EDGE Frank Clark, S Kareem Jackson, C Lloyd Cushenberry, TE Adam Trautman
  19. Atlanta Falcons (5-6)
    Team needs: QB, LB, WR, EDGE, CB, S
    Notable free agents: CB Jeff Okudah, EDGE Calais Campbell, EDGE Bud Dupree, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, C Matt Hennessy
  20. Indianapolis Colts (6-5)
    Team needs: CB, S, WR, DT, EDGE, LB
    Notable free agents: DT Grover Stewart, CB Kenny Moore, QB Gardner Minshew, WR Michael Pittman Jr., RB Zack Moss
  21. Minnesota Vikings (6-5)
    Team needs: QB, EDGE, CB, DT, RB
    Notable free agents: QB Kirk Cousins, EDGE Danielle Hunter, EDGE Marcus Davenport, WR K.J. Osborn, QB Josh Dobbs
  22. Seattle Seahawks (6-5)
    Team needs: OG, S, EDGE, LB, DT
    Notable free agents: OG Damien Lewis, LB Devin Bush, LB Jordyn Brooks, QB Drew Lock, LB Bobby Wagner, DT Leonard Williams
  23. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)
    Team needs: OT, CB, LB, OG, QB
    Notable free agents: CB Levi Wallace, DT Montravius Adams, QB Mason Rudolph, EDGE Markus Golden
  24. Houston Texans (via trade with 7-4 Browns)
    Team needs: DT, EDGE, LB, CB, TE, OG, WR
    Notable free agents: TE Dalton Schultz, DT Sheldon Rankins, CB Steven Nelson, EDGE Jonathan Greenard, CB Tavierre Thomas
  25. Miami Dolphins (8-3)
    Team needs: TE, OG, CB, DT, LB
    Notable free agents: C Connor Williams, DT Christian Wilkins, OG Isaiah Wynn, OG Robert Hunt, DT Raekwon Davis, LB Jerome Baker
  26. Dallas Cowboys (8-3)
    Team needs: C, RB, CB, DT, OG
    Notable free agents: OT Tyron Smith, RB Tony Pollard, CB Stephon Gilmore, C Tyler Biadasz, EDGE Dorance Armstrong
  27. Detroit Lions (8-3)
    Team needs: CB, OG, DT, EDGE, WR
    Notable free agents: EDGE Romeo Okwara, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, OG Halapoulivaati Vaitai, OG Jonah Jackson, CB Emmanuel Moseley, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones
  28. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3)
    Team needs: OG, DT, EDGE, WR, S, CB
    Notable free agents: EDGE Josh Allen, EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson, WR Calvin Ridley, OG Ben Bartch, OG Ezra Cleveland
  29. Kansas City Chiefs (8-3)
    Team needs: OT, WR, CB, DT, EDGE
    Notable free agents: DT Chris Jones, LB Drue Tranquill, S Mike Edwards, LB Willie Gay Jr., CB L’Jarius Sneed, OT Donovan Smith
  30. San Francisco 49ers (8-3)
    Team needs: OT, OG, C, CB, TE, S
    Notable free agents: DT Javon Kinlaw, QB Sam Darnold, EDGE Clelin Ferrell, S Tashaun Gipson, EDGE Chase Young
  31. Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
    Team needs: OG, OT, CB, DT, RB, EDGE
    Notable free agents: WR Odell Beckham Jr., OG Kevin Zeitler, DT Michael Pierce, LB Patrick Queen, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney, RB J.K. Dobbins
  32. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
    Team needs: RB, EDGE, CB, TE, DT
    Notable free agents: C Jason Kelce, DT Fletcher Cox, EDGE Derek Barnett, EDGE Brandon Graham, RB D’Andre Swift, RB Rashaad Penny

Teams without a first-round pick
Cleveland Browns (7-4)
Team needs: OT, EDGE, DT, S, RB, OG
Notable free agents: EDGE Za’Darius Smith, DT Shelby Harris, S Grant Delpit, DT Maurice Hurst, DT Jordan Elliott

Carolina Panthers (1-10)
Team needs: WR, RB, OG, OT, CB, DT, EDGE
Notable free agents: EDGE Justin Houston, EDGE Brian Burns, LB Frankie Luvu, S Jeremy Chinn, WR DJ Chark